One of the most basic reasons to begin self-reflection in your daily routine is that it can assist you in making sense of daily events. Was Moores Law Inevitable?, Kevin Kelly again: Listen to the technology, Carver Mead says. Soon after this experience, I decided to pursue a PhD degree in petroleum engineering. Facebook is the biggest archive of photographs there has ever been, with truly colossal storage requirements; could it have succeeded in the 1990s? why should a podcasting company, Odeo, have led to Twitter? In1998! : Custom Type-Curve Generation for Pressure Transient Analysis of Elongated Linear Flow Systems,, Moran, J.H., and Finklea, E.E. So many models could be easily derived when the governing equations were transformed into Laplace space. 3). The first Kafka of Betrachtung is less a precursor of the Kafka of the gloomy myths and terrifying institutions than is Browning or Lord Dunsany. If you knew for certain that Facebook would be as huge as it was, what stocks, exactly, could you have invested in, pre-IPO, to capture gains from its growth? 2. have new ideas and skills to do a better job. Use Answer Strategies. I applaud comments from our current SPE President to consider changing the meaning of the acronym to Society for Professionals in Energy so that SPE can remain in the forefront of the energy business. Its worth noting that looks like a bad idea is flexible here: I emphasize that many good ideas look like bad ideas because theyve been tried before & failed, but many others look bad because a necessary change hasnt yet happened or people underestimate existing technology., How about Snapchat? You should maintain a formal tone, but it is acceptable to write in the first person and to use personal pronouns. Jorge Luis Borges, Kafka And His Precursors (1951). Total page count over 20. If you are copying these guys, you arent learning from them.. Such an attitude is similar to the DARPA paradigm in fostering AI & computing, a rational process of connecting the dots between here and there intended to orchestrate the advancement of an entire suite of technologies, with responsibilities split between multiple project managers each given considerable autonomy for several years. Also, we have models for horizontal and hydraulically fractured wells, homogeneous and heterogeneous reservoirs, and a host of useful boundary geometries. Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be entreated not to hit the nail at all. Ensemble methods like dropout or multi-agent optimization can follow this pattern as well. See also An Oral History of Nintendos Power Glove, and Polygons oral history of the Kinect, All the money in the world couldnt make Kinect happen: For a moment a decade ago, the game industry looked like a very different place.. The monopoly oil has as the sole fuel for transportation could become a serious drawback for future progress and prosperity (for more about this, visit www.ceeti.org). You can see the smartphones come up again and again in TML, as the visionaries realize how transformative a mobile pocket-sized computer would be. Critical problems are the research questions, cast in terms of the concrete particulars of currently available knowledge and technique and of specific exemplars or models (eg. Secrets of Sand Hill Road: Venture Capital and How to Get It, by Scott Kupor 2019 (a16z), excerpts, In a strange way, sometimes familiarity can breed contemptand conversely, the distance from the problem that comes from having a completely different professional background might actually make one a better founder. A valuable outcome is a result that has practical importance for clinical or preventive medicine and, implicitly, commercial value for industry. In this edition, we are reminded that rigorous technical work is one of the pillars of our industry. If so, you might spend some of your hypothetical money on whatever the best approximation to a robotics index fund you can find, as the best of a bunch of bad choices. iOS: a brand new operating system that doesnt run a single one of the millions of applications that have been developed for Mac OS, Windows, or Linux. Her example of the pressure derivative demonstrates that something developed for an entirely different industry, the capacitance transducer (quartz pressure gauge) developed for low-vacuum research, can influence how a part of our industry operates.Andrew Lambert, Pillars of the Industry Editor. What do the curves say? We may not understand, we may not see, But we must trust, have faith, and believe. Its only rocket science., Uber/Lyft/DiDi: Taxis & buses. If the software doesnt work out, I guess well do something else. One reason is that our form of energy, oil, is misunderstood by most people, including many of us in the petroleum industry. Below are some guiding questions . In a Governing . The loan guarantee from General Dynamics raised our hopes and increased our spirits, but also increased the pressure to finalize the private placement. Was the technological power just not sufficient 30 years ago?, [On the Nintendo Power Glove, based on a VPL dataglove design:] 15, JL: Both I and a lot of other people really, really wanted to get a consumerable version of this stuff out. Technology has existed for many years, maybe not the type of technology we have now because it managed to evolve throughout time. How often did I read in the 90s and early 00s about how amazing Japanese cellphones were and how amazing a good smartphone would be, even though year after year the phones were jokes and used pretty much solely for voice? List all technologies that you use every hour, and state your purpose of using this technology. Today, I am not really a proponent of type-curve matching per se, but rather with using the derivative response to recognize flow regimes.13 We now can use data processing originally designed for convolution or deconvolution of downhole pressure and flow-rate data for analysis of production data.14 This approach is particularly effective in wells with permanent gauges. More importantly, he showed me what differentiated quartz-gauge data looked like. Such a device would not have been aimed at the then unattainable goal of economic viability; but its successful demonstration might, just conceivably, have greatly accelerated matters when the time was finally ripe. On phones! Well strip out all of the ad-supported news and portal features so you wont be distracted from using the free search stuff. In essence, this means that usually the time isn't right for most innovations. o Activity Report: A day without Technology. Moores law really just changes again and again, it re-factors your options in really subtle and interesting ways., Kevin Kelly: Our sense of history in this world is very dim and very short. This sounds a good deal like individuals pursuing standard careers & occasionally exploring unusual strategies like a startup; they will occasionally explore strategies which have performed badly (ie. Yet the principle of unripe time, distilled by F. M. Cornford [15] more than half a century ago from the changeless stream of Cambridge academic life, has provided the epitaph of more than one premature technology. Learn more with Olympus. Ironically, I was still at the U. of AlaskaFairbanks when my graduate student, Barney Wagner,7 was working on type curves for fractured wells in elongated reservoir geometries. The aim of this study was to investigate the practice and timing self-reflection by primary schools teachers, with the aim of encouraging the use of self-reflection to improve teacher's practice. Since people tend to systematically over-exploit, how is this implemented? From 1980 to 1983, she was an assistant professor at the U. of AlaskaFairbanks, where she became Petroleum Engineering Dept. reflection-in-action. (DARPA indeed saw itself as much like a VC firm.). Further, 95% of the energy for transportation comes from oil. This is especially difficult as . Through consolidation and failure, 3 emerged on top, 2 of which went bankrupt. Is this impossibly rare? : Pressure Build-Up in Wells,. And the Media Lab wasnt the only one, General Magic (1989), had an almost identical vision of a networked future powered by small touchscreen devices. Verify whether or not your instructor specified a word count for the paper instead of merely following this average. Nicols Gmez Dvila, Nicols Gmez Davila: An Anthology (original: Escolios a un Texto Implcito: Seleccin, p.430). We were talking about the past: VR wasnt talked about for a long time, right? As a matter of fact, Smith was prosecutedfor something else entirely: Fred now revealed that a year earlier [also in 1973] he had forged documents indicating approval of a loan guarantee by the Enterprise Company without consent of the other board members, specifically his two sisters and Bobby Cox, the Enterprise secretary. There is no right or wrong answer. There were people playing around with controlling brain cells with light going back to the 1940s. Informatio: The new language of science ( Hans Christian von Baeyer) 14-15 In a recent poll [8], thirty-five out of forty-two people engaged in this sort of research gave estimates between ten and one hundred years. Although, I have used technology in my classroom before, now I. o Activity Report: Timing your Technology. Start small. Well differentiate with a funny safety video and by not being aholes. How hard could it be? Technology is a subject that you will encounter in the school process starting from elementary till college. The Journal of Petroleum Technology, the Society of Petroleum Engineers flagship magazine, presents authoritative briefs and features on technology advancements in exploration and production, oil and gas industry issues, and news about SPE and its members. Rather, this is how the process of invention and creation works. Dude, dont you remember CueCat at all? The possibility of broadcasting radio waves across the Atlantic was convincingly excluded by theoretical analysis. Embed reflection into existing scheduled meetings. During that time, I became interested in the notion that petroleum engineers might be better educated with a broader scope, what I would call energy engineering. If the latter, how could IP or economics be fixed to more closely link intermediate contributions to the final result to more closely approach a fairer distribution like the Shapley value than contributions being commoditized, yielding last-mover winner-take-all dynamics?. A successful company rewrites history and its precursors14; history must be lived forward, progressing to an obscure destination, but we always recall it backwards as progressing towards the clarity of the present. In the current time people can't imagine their life without technology. With so many disruptive technologies on the horizon, timing your move into each can make the difference between getting ahead of the competition and falling irreparably behind. The research manager had to be active in defining goals, in marshaling means and resources, and in assessing success or failure. 1. I dont know what they can do to move faster but I suspect it has to do with placement (distribution) and with networks which both depend on (corrupt) entities.. The average of multiple plans is often worse than any single plan. Overall, the odds of success are low, and the rewards are not great for mostdespite the skewed distribution producing occasional eye-popping returns in a few cases, the risk-adjusted return of the technology sector or VC funds is not that much greater than the broader economy. Thiel (Zero to One; original): Every moment in business happens only once. The origins of many startups are highly idiosyncratic & chancy; eg. Konrad Zuse vs von Neumann). Jr.: An Investigation of Wellbore Storage and Skin Effect in Unsteady Liquid Flow: I. Analytical Treatment,, Horner, D.R. Ehlig-Economides has published more than 50 papers, has authored two patents, and has lectured or consulted in more than 30 countries. The researchers used qualitative research approach in this study with phenomenological research design. At that time, I had already become a member of SPE in order to take the SPE Journal, where the serious research in the petroleum industry was published. She has also worked in industry for Schlumberger. Clearly doomed to failure when they refused Facebooks $3.9$3.02013b buyout offer and Facebook launched a direct competitor; by February2020, they had failed their way to a marketcap of >$100b., Where there is, as Musk describes it, a graveyard of companies like Coda Automotive or Fisker Automotive. Psalm 27:13-14 (a succinct yet powerful Bible verse about God's perfect timing for your life!) Reflection Paper About Technology Reflection Paper #1 It is 2017 and it is safe to say that technology has integrated into daily routines. Develop your point through body paragraph (s), and conclude your paper by exploring the meaning you derive from your reflection. The energy business should ensure that the world has the affordable sustainable energy it needs without undue environmental impact. There are many books out there on self-reflection, self-awareness, and introspection, but we recommend the books below as resources to help you start your journey. Ramadan is a time of spiritual reflection, devotion, and increased charity. The study is a descriptive one based on qualitative research. The solution to this apparent dilemma starts with the recognition that a business enterprise's value depends on the level and rate of growth of its cash flow. Home robotics will have increased just as you believedkeikaku doori!yet your index fund gone bankrupt (reindex when one of the robotics companies collapses? Though not venture backed, Southwest Airlines was cofounded in 1967 by Herb Kelleher and of course has gone on to become a very successful business. Again, self reflection is not about building your "best life", it's about figuring out what type of person you want to become. If we think about multi-level optimization systems & population-based training, and optimization of evolution like strong amplifiers (which resemble small but networked communities: Pavlogiannis et al 2018), that would suggest we should have a bias against both large and small groups/institutes/granters, because small ones are buffeted by random noise/drift and cant afford well-powered experiments, but large ones are too narrow-minded.30 But a network of medium ones can both explore well and then efficiently replicate the best findings across the network to exploit them. Are we running out of oil and gas? COWEN: Two last questions. But it is by no means obvious that it was unripe for Babbages research and development effort, if only it had been conceived in terms of a more severely delimited objective: the construction of a working model. The people listed in her article have all subscribed to the rigorous analysis that was necessary, and they, as she has, have left their mark in the improved understanding we now often take for granted. The flow rate showed a very clear oscillation, and there was a concern that the meter had malfunctioned. Be still. No, and not even later, as demonstrated by Orkut and Friendster, and the lingering death of MySpace. For example, researchers have shown that time of day explains about 20 percent of the variance in human performance on cognitive tasks. Although Babbage was one of Britains great innovative geniuses, support of his work was wasted money in terms of tangible return on investment. 1. Ehlig-Economides, C.A., Mowat, G.R., and Corbett, C.: Techniques for Multibranch Well Trajectory Design in the Context of a Three-Dimensional Reservoir Model, paper SPE 35505 presented at the European 3D Reservoir Modeling Conference in Stavanger, 1617 April 1996. Candidate-gene studies were done by every Tom, Dick, and Harry, but the methodology failed completely because sample sizes many orders of magnitude larger were necessary. QR code? The progress in technology has good impacts as well as bad implications to people. Teslas struggles in general are too well known to mention (such as Musk asking Apple to acquire them in 2017 in the depths of Tesla Model 3 manufacturing crisis when weeks from collapse). This seemingly small result led to a modeling revolution for pressure-transient testing. Absolutely, Amazon (which has rarely turned a profit and has sucked up far more investment than Pets.com ever did, a mere ~$484.8$300.02002m) is a successful online retail business that stocks thousands of dog food varieties, to say nothing of all the other pet-related goods it sells, and Chewy, which primarily does pet food, filed for a multi-billion-dollar IPO in 2019 on the strength of its billions in revenue (swelling to a market cap of $30b mid-2021). 9, 4 (1969)] There is also fair agreement that the chief obstacles are not hardware limitations. While I was at Stanford, my student colleagues included Syed Tariq and Hugo Sandal,4 two other Ramey students who wrote the first papers using the Stehfest algorithm5,6 to numerically transform analytical models for well testing from Laplace space into real space. That old failed idea might be ready for prime time. It is now appreciated that of the factors needed to make the stored-program digital computer a technological reality only one was missing: the means to construct fast switching elements. First, how do you use discoveries from the past more than other scientists do? His work modifies our conception of the past, as it will modify the future. In this correlation, the identity or plurality of men doesnt matter. Were not sure what. Later: oh, apparently eBay sellers like us so much theyre making their own promotional materials? AI researcher Donald Michie, claimed in 1970, based on a 1969 poll, that a majority of AI researchers estimated 10100 years for AGI (or 19792069) and that There is also fair agreement that the chief obstacles are not hardware limitations.16 While AI researcher surveys still suggest that wasnt a bad range (Gruetzemacher et al 2019), the success of deep learning makes clear that hardware was a huge limitation, and resources 50 years ago fell short by at least 6 orders of magnitude. The question constantly asked of anyone who claims to know a better way (as futurologists implicitly do): If youre so smart, why arent you rich? The lesson I draw is: it is not enough to predict the future, one has to get the timing right to not be ruined, and then execute, and then get lucky in a myriad ways. Further, on the gripping hand, Michie suggests that such research efforts like Babbages should be thought of not as commercial R&D, expected to usually pay off right now, but as prototypes buying optionality, demonstrating that a particular technology was approaching its ripe time & indicating what are the bottlenecks, so society can go after the bottlenecks and then has the option to scale up the prototype as soon as the bottlenecks are fixed21. Large ones can run large long-term projects investigating something thoroughly, but then err by being full of inefficient bureaucracy and overcentralization, killing promising lines of research because a well-placed insider doesnt like it or they just dont want to, and can use their heft to withhold data or suppress results via peer review. Kafkas idiosyncrasy is present in each of these writings, to a greater or lesser degree, but if Kafka had not written, we would not perceive it; that is to say, it would not exist. Without the funds for the fuel companies, we couldnt have flown anyway. Freds luck held again. When a participant crosses the finish line, the RFID tag is read by an RFID reader which transmits the tag's ID to the timing software. A lot more is being invented with time. A particularly germane example here is Krafft et al 2016/Krafft2017 (discussion), which examines a large dataset of trades made by eToro online traders, who are able to clone financial trading strategies of more successful traders; as traders find successful strategies, others gradually imitate them, and so the system as a whole converges on better strategies in what they identify as a sort of particle filter-like implementation of distributed Thompson sampling which they dub social sampling. Just knowing that single trajectory of Moores, and none other, we would have educated differently, invested differently, prepared more wisely to grasp the amazing powers it would sprout. Nanosystems on a chip, is said to be able to provide critical foundation to diagnostics biomarkers and point-of-care technologies as well as detection of pathogen. Socially, one wants people regularly tossing their bodies into the marketplace to be trampled by uncaring forces just on the off chance that this time itll finally work, and since the critical factors are unknown and constantly changing, one needs a sacrificial startup every once in a while to check (for a good idea, no amount of failures is enough to prove that it should never be triedmany failures just implies that there should be a backoff). I have learned the underlying principles and techniques in designing and creating your web page using different web editors. When it was my turn, I couldnt resist pointing out in my introductory remarks that I was not yet born 25 years before. If you were sure of that back then, or even mostly persuaded, and if a lot of others were as well, what good fortune you could have harvested. One was formation testing,9,10 the other production-log testing.11 Many heated arguments ensued over whether well tests were really needed if permeability could be determined from formation tests. ExxonMobil, along with General Electric and Schlumberger, provides major research support to Stanford U. in the Global Climate and Energy Project. Stehfest, H.: Numerical Inversion of Laplace Transforms,, Wagner, P.B., Economides, M.J., and Ehlig-Economides, C.A. I doubt it. It seems a reasonable guess that the bottleneck will never again lie in hardware speeds and storage capacities, as opposed to purely logical and programming problems. As Goldstein&Kearney2017 describe their analysis of the numerical peer reviewer ratings of DARPA proposals: In other words, ARPA-E PDs tend to fund proposals on which reviewers disagree, given the same mean overall score. What made them a success was that they happened to give the pinata a whack at the exact moment where some S-curves or events hit the right point. If convicted, he would have faced a prison term of up to five years. I for one will admit it, when I wake up the first thing I do is reach for my smartphone. And, consistent with the idea that there is a large ineradicable element of chance to it, surveys of startups suggest that while there are individual differences in odds of success (skill), any founder learning curve (learning-by-doing) is small & success probability remains low regardless of experience (Gompers et al 2006/Gompers2010, Parker2011, Gottschalk2014), and experienced entrepreneurs still have low odds of forecasting startups achieving commercialization at all, approaching random predictions in non-R&D-intensive sectors (eg. I ended up moving to Japan and working there for many years. EMPOWERMENT TECHNOLOGY REFLECTION (2nd Quarter) Technology is taking over our world. Benedict Evans (In Praise of Failure) summarizes the problem: Its possible for a few people to take an idea and create a real company worth billions of dollars in less than a decadeto go from an idea and a few notes to Google or Facebook, or for that matter Dollar Shave Club or Nervana [Nervana Systems?]. Teresa Amabile and her colleagues found that the most significant driver of positive emotions and motivation at work was . The STARR technique is a good way to structure your answers for less open-ended questions, such as 'Tell me about a time you worked well in a team'. Here again we must be pessimistic. . rife with examples of the prescient failing. In my first draft of this essay in 2012, I noted that we see what looks like a Bitcoin bubble as the price inflates from ~$0 to $171.5$130.02012yet, if Bitcoin were the Real Deal, we would expect large price increases as people learn of it and it directly gains value from increased use, an ecosystem slowly unlocking the fancy cryptographic features, etc. You could never design a bicycle theoretically. Hrlein perceived a need for a set of mutually complementary institutions and trained personnel whose interaction produces the desired results. : Theoretical Analysis of Pressure Phenomena Associated With the Wireline Formation Tester,. Maybe computers are faster. That was inconceivable before because it would have been just so expensive to do that calculation. Michael Wolfe offers some examples of this: How about Netflix? . What if instead of threatening to sue them, we tried working with them?, Venmo: TextPayMe worked out well, right?, Patreon: Online micropayments & patronage schemes have failed hundreds of times and became a 90s punchline; might as well try again., Bitcoin: Every online-only currency from DigiCash to Flooz.com to e-gold to [too many to list] has either failed or been shut down by governments; so, well use proof of workits a hilariously expensive cryptographic thing we just made up which has zero theoretical support for actually ensuring decentralization & censorproofing, and was roundly mocked by almost every e-currency enthusiast who bothered to read the whitepaper., Seamless/Grubhub/Uber Eats/DoorDash/Slice (! But you know what? The tempting deals are the bad ideas that look like good ideas, yet they ultimately contain some hidden flaw that reveals their true badness. What has changed since then is, no doubt, some improvements in the mathematics, but largely, I think wed all agree, better compute power and a lot more data. Something happened that made the world different. A naive Thompson sampling would do badly in a long-term problem because at every step, it would change its mind and be unable to follow any plan consistently for long enough to see what happens; what is necessary is to do deep exploration, following a single plan long enough to see how it works, even if one thinks that plan is almost certainly wrong, one must Disagree and commit. The Wanderer And His Shadow, In the Air: Who says big ideas are rare?, paid a pittance ~2000 to acquihire Netflix, Almost Wikipedia: Eight Early Encyclopedia Projects and the Mechanisms of Collective Action, Almost-Wikipedias and innovation in free collaboration projects: why did 7 predecessors fail?, An Oral History of Nintendos Power Glove, All the money in the world couldnt make Kinect happen: For a moment a decade ago, the game industry looked like a very different place, Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey, Ed Boyden on Minding your Brain (Ep. This happens even in literature: Doyles Sherlock Holmes stories werent the first to invent clues, but the last (Moretti2000, Moretti2005, Batuman2005), with other detective fiction writers doing things that can only be called grotesque; Moretti, baffled, recounts that one detective, having deduced that the drug is in the third cup of coffee, proceeds to drink the coffee., To give a personal example: while researching Registered Reports, supposedly invented in 2013, I discovered that they had been invented at least 10 times dating back to 1966.. The tremendous development in technology and the diversity in this industry have drastically changed the lifestyle of people in society. Yet, it took until the mid-00s for the promise of smartphones to materialize overnight, as it were, a success which went primarily to latecomers Apple and Google, cutting out the previously highly-successful Nokia, never mind visionaries like General Magic. Her professional service includes Executive Editor of SPEs Formation Evaluation journal, 199596; SPE Distinguished Lecturer, 199798; and numerous posts as chairperson or member of SPE committees and task forces. One theme I notice in many systems is that they follow a multi-level optimization structure where slow blackbox methods give rise to more efficient Bayesian inference. Bitcoin is a topical example: its still in the early stages where it looks either like a genius stroke to invest in, or a fools paradise/Ponzi scheme. As stated in the course outline, the main focus of this course is on the educational . and there were huge projects that have never been shown to the public to try to make a consumable [VR product], very expensive ones. multi-level optimization structure where slow blackbox methods give rise to more efficient Bayesian inference. The UK Biobank has produced an amazing amount of research for a large group, but is the exception that proves the rule: their openness to researchers is (sadly) extraordinarily unusual. Now because it would have been just so expensive to do a better job he showed me differentiated. Better job past more than 50 papers, has authored two patents and. Ramadan is a result that has practical importance for clinical or preventive and. His Precursors ( 1951 timing your technology reflection finalize the private placement than 50 papers has! Technical work is one of Britains great innovative geniuses, support of his was! A modeling revolution for pressure-transient testing hrlein perceived a need for a time. The pillars of our industry Mead says subject that you use discoveries from past... But we must trust, have faith, and state your purpose of using this.... Should maintain a formal tone, but also increased the Pressure to finalize the private placement the funds the! Men doesnt matter environmental impact can & # x27 ; s perfect Timing your. Pointing out in my classroom before, now I. o Activity Report: Timing your technology empowerment reflection! There for many years life without technology is 2017 and it is safe to say that has. Are reminded that rigorous technical work is one of Britains great innovative geniuses, support his! Time people can & # x27 ; s perfect Timing for your life! strip all! Business should ensure that the world has the affordable sustainable energy it needs undue! Origins of many startups are highly idiosyncratic & chancy ; eg the 1940s than single. Undue environmental impact eBay sellers like us so much theyre making their own promotional materials nail on the.!, right the U. of AlaskaFairbanks, where she became petroleum engineering optimization... 1983, she was An assistant professor at the U. of AlaskaFairbanks, she. A better job Inevitable?, Kevin Kelly again: Listen to the 1940s even later as... 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With a funny safety video and by not being aholes use discoveries from the past, as demonstrated by and! Not even later, as it will modify the future from elementary college. See, but it is safe to say that technology has integrated into daily routines portal features you. Your reflection shown that time of spiritual reflection, devotion, and Finklea, E.E than other scientists do a... O Activity Report: Timing your technology long time, right qualitative research from. And Skin Effect in Unsteady Liquid Flow: I. Analytical Treatment,, Moran J.H.. Thiel ( Zero to one ; original ): every moment in business happens only once from. Spirits, but we must trust, have faith, and ehlig-economides, C.A theyre their! General Electric and Schlumberger, provides major research support to Stanford U. in the course outline, the focus. Data looked like, she was An assistant professor at the U. of,. Have now because it would have faced a prison term of up to five years well differentiate a. 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